The Greek default

Much of discussion happens these days about sorting out Europe’s problems: a sovereign debt crisis, a banking sector still not fully recovered from the financial crisis, and a currency crisis. The debt crisis focuses on Greece. The fears concerning banks relate to their exposure to government bonds as from countries like Greece, Portugal, Italy, and Spain and a degree of undercapitalisation. The currency crisis is all about the future of the Euro. Continue reading

Perspective on financial markets – bad surprises in store for Q4 2011?

Europe: European stock markets are in the doldrums. The EuroStoxx 50 had recovered from its major low in early 2009, but then went into free fall in Aug 2011. Equity markets are now much driven by the bad news about European sovereign debt crisis, either real bad news about European banks or speculation that the banks are still undercapitalised and some may hit the buffers should Greece default sooner than acceptable for the banks. From a technical point of view, the outlook is not rosy with a few key technical indicators boldly pointing south. Continue reading